Houston Rockets fans might be feeling overwhelmed with questions about the team’s future. Key issues include determining the core players, identifying which young talents will rise after a challenging rebuild, and deciding whether to extend contracts for Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green before next summer.
These concerns can be quite stressful. Specifically, questions about Jalen Green are particularly pressing. Although Green hasn’t yet demonstrated he deserves a max contract, losing him without compensation would be a significant blow.
We’ll break down these questions to figure out an appropriate contract for Green. What should Green’s role be on the court? How close is he to meeting these expectations? What is his overall impact?
To start, Green should be scoring efficiently. We’ll compare his performance using True Shooting % (TS%) and Box Plus/Minus (BPM) to assess his value. This analysis will help determine a fair contract amount, potentially easing some of your concerns.
Green’s efficiency needs improvement. We’re focusing on his 2023-24 season, his first in a meaningful NBA role after two seasons on a struggling team. Last year, Green’s TS% was 54.1%, below the league average of 58.0%. However, efficiency alone isn’t enough; we must also consider shot volume, which impacts guards like Green.
Green took 16.2 shots per game. Comparisons with guards like Cade Cunningham and Jordan Poole, who had similar shot volumes, reveal that Green’s efficiency is a bit lacking. Cunningham recently signed an extension worth an average of $44.8 million per season, while Poole’s deal is around $32 million per season. But direct comparisons are tricky due to differences in size and playmaking abilities.
Green’s BPM for 2023-24 was -0.5, similar to players like OG Anunoby and Max Strus. By contrast, young guards like Coby White and Devin Vassell have better efficiency, with Vassell earning $27 million a season and White $12 million on a short-term deal. However, Green is younger and still has potential, which could influence his contract.
Ultimately, the Rockets might choose to offer Green a contract similar to Vassell’s, reflecting both his age and potential.