What a wild ride that game was! The Cubs jumped on Pirates rookie phenom Paul Skenes early, scoring three runs in the first two innings, sparking hopes for a sweep. But then the inconsistent Kyle Hendricks took the mound. A first-inning homer was manageable, but the second inning was disastrous—he faced 16 batters, allowing eight hits, three walks, and six runs.
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Once again, we’re left questioning whether Kyle can still effectively retire major league hitters. The Cubs face a tough decision: even though this game shows they’re not out of contention yet, it’s hard to justify starting Kyle again this season.
But let’s not get too sidetracked by that depressing narrative. Yesterday, I noted that the Cubs had been hammering the Pirates bullpen, and the hope was to keep the game close enough to exploit that weakness.
No one could’ve predicted a 10-3 score after six innings was “close enough” to steal a win, but the Pirates bullpen imploded. After Paul Skenes recovered from the rough start, giving his team a chance to fight back, Kyle Nicholas pitched a scoreless sixth. However, he and four other relievers then surrendered 11 hits and five walks over the final three innings, leading to 11 Cubs runs and a shocking 14-10 comeback victory.
According to WPA (Win Probability Added), the Pirates had a 99.1% chance of winning after six innings. Even after the Cubs chipped away in the seventh, the Pirates still had a 98.5% chance of winning with a 10-5 lead. But a crucial baserunning mistake by the Pirates and Daniel Palencia’s escape act in the seventh kept the Cubs’ hopes alive.
By the time the Cubs were down to their last three outs, they had just a 7.9% chance of winning. But the ninth inning was a masterclass in clutch hitting:
– Seiya Suzuki singled. 84.4% to lose
– Cody Bellinger hit into a fielder’s choice. 91.1% to lose
– Isaac Paredes singled. 83.2% to lose
– Nico Hoerner walked. 71.7% to lose
– Dansby Swanson hit into a fielder’s choice, cutting the lead to one. 83.3% to lose
– Swanson stole second. 79.4% to lose
– Pete Crow-Armstrong was intentionally walked. 76.5% to lose
– Christian Bethancourt singled. 83.3% to win
– Ian Happ singled. 92.1% to win
– Mike Tauchman singled. 96.4% to win
– Suzuki singled. 98.4% to win
One of the most incredible moments was PCA being intentionally walked—just a month ago, some Cubs fans doubted he belonged in the majors, yet here he was being respected as a dangerous hitter.
The Pirates’ collapse is historic. Over the last seven seasons, MLB teams were 1,192-0 when leading by 7+ runs after six innings. The Cubs’ comeback was truly one for the ages, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive.
Three Stars of the Game:
1. Superhero: Christian Bethancourt (.667). He went 3-5 with a HR, a double, 7 RBI, 3 R, and a stolen base—possibly his best performance at any level.
2. Hero: Ian Happ (.243). He contributed with 3 hits, 2 walks, 2 RBI, and 2 runs.
3. Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.196). He went 4-4 with a walk, an RBI, and scored 4 runs.
Three Goats:
1. Billy Goat: Kyle Hendricks (-.531). 1⅔ IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 6 R, 2 K.
2. Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.118). 0-4, BB, RBI, 2 R, SB.
3. Kid: Michael Busch (-.073). 0-4.
The Cubs now have an off day to regroup before facing the Nationals in a crucial three-game series. Their playoff hopes stand at 3.6%, with a 5½ game gap in the Wild Card race.